Fantasy Football Drafting Strategies 2010

There are a lot of different thoughts to drafting, and to be honest it really depends on the type of league, scoring format, number of managers and  manager experience to really determine the best strategy. However, solid judgement, lack of emotional influence, good research, a plan and lots of luck usually are all you really need to score big on draft day.

I’ve won a good percentage or at least finished in the top 3 in the majority of fantasy leagues I participate in. I attribute my success to understanding the impact of the real football game versus the fantasy football game. The rest is studying the value of certain players. There are going to be some players that you pretty much know what you get year ;in and out. These would be guys like Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew and so on. Guys like these are committed to winning and have the talent to excel at the pro level. Without at least a few of these type fantasy football players targeted in your draft you won’t stand a chance. But the real difference between the average drafter and the great drafter is identifying a great value pick.

Take, for instance, this years 2010 fantasy football draft. I have no doubt in my mind that the top 5 players selected in 90% of drafts will include a few names such as Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Jones-Drew, Michael Turner, Drew Brees, Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. Trust me, there will be some combination of these guys off the board in the first round for sure. And yes, this year if you are not selecting Chris Johnson with the number one overall pick then I hope your league awards 6 points for TDs or is a PPR league. The point is, we have an idea of who is going to be off the board in the top of the first round. However, say you draft at the turn or last and assuming your league uses the typical snake draft. Your team gets back-to-back picks, and you will wait a long time to pick again. So you better pick wisely.

Some players will tell you that you always draft two running backs with your first two picks. This is absurd because it totally depends on your league scoring format. If QB’s get 6 points for TDs thrown, then a top tier QB is worth quite a bit. More so, RBs have the tendency to get hurt, giving opportunity to younger RBs to show what they can do, giving you ample chances to snag one of these guys up throughout the year. Where otherwise, you are likely stuck with the QB you drafted unless you make a trade or someone has a sleeper type breakout performance at the Quarterback position.

Admittedly, I love the running back position, but personally (and not following any particular order) I try to draft 1 Quarterback, 1 Wide Receiver, 2 Running Backs and a flex player meaning either a RB or WR. Whoever is rated highest by your standards or someone else’s if you’re just are not sure.

Begin the season by preparing for the draft at least a week in advance. Although, if you really want to be prepared several weeks in advance would be better. When the late rounds come and a player like Brent Celek is available as late as pick 135, you should be the one anticipating his underrated value and capitalize on that pick. Trust me, I don’t care how big of a football fan you are, near the end of a draft, especially the last 3-4 rounds of a 14-16 round draft, you start to get glassy-eyed and the names start requiring a deeper search into your mind. Not only that but sometimes the players you want are not always ranked as you would expect. So in these last few rounds the time to make a selection seems to just burn off for you. This is where early preparation really helps. It gives you an edge in identifying the player you want and if you practiced mock drafts (and you should do at least one), you have an idea what will happen almost predicting picks.

Kickers, Tight-Ends and Defences usually don’t get drafted too high by me, and again this depends on your league. I am in one money league where the TE position gets I think 1.25x the scoring of a typical WR and, if they break the 80 yard threshold, a 5 point bonus. Wanna know why? Most TE’s never accomplish this in a single game, let alone across a season. Even Antonio Gates, who I have had in this league one year only capitalized a hand full of times on these bonuses. Sure when that happens its awesome, but think about where you would have to draft Gates. You are probably missing out on Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Jackson, or any other number of players that will likely outperform the TE position, including Gates, each week on average. But this is a judgement call and an opinion, one you have to make.

Mock drafts are great. You don’t even need to join an actual draft, just go to whatever site your league will be in and look at the pre-rankings area. You can assign yourself a draft slot and practice your own mock draft. When I do this I don’t practice every single possible draft slot. You’ll usually have a very good idea of what will happen simply by practicing the first, last and a middle slot. When you finish any mock draft look at your results. What do you think of your team? This is your chance to evaluate any weaknesses, but definitely identify your strengths. Could you have selected a different player in another round who would have been available to address this weakness and perhaps sacrifice your area of strength? A balanced fantasy team is one built for the playoffs, but making the playoffs is only your first step. I have noticed balanced teams do not perform so great in championship games. This is usually because of a few factors. One, you do not have any one area that dominates on scoring. Two, your star players play for teams that in real life play for perennial contenders and they get rested in the waning weeks – meaning you just lost your some of your pop, big-time! This can be countered near the end of the season with a trade in your favor or free agent hoarding of promising players who could potentially replace those types of rested players at the end of the season.

Now that you have been through your mock drafts. You have an idea of who will be available when you select. It’s just as important to know who you don’t want to select. A popular phrase in fantasy sports is to “never pay for a breakout season.” Ever. I fully stand behind this. Roster changes, trades, free-agency, injury, age and luck always play a vital role at the start of each season to evaluate players. If a guy is a rookie or has been a mediocre player in years past, but has a very great season do not overpay. I am not saying you can’t target them, but definitely assign this player a proper value rank. If he has yet to really prove himself, do not select him above a guy who can provide similar numbers and has proved it for years. Let someone else over pay. And you know why if you have been in many drafts. Guys you might have wanted to target who probably were not available in your mock drafts start to fall through. They begin to gain value by being undervalued by others. Capitalize on these anomalies that happen every single football draft.

OK, so since the rest of the draft relies on studying which players to target, we’ll address that in our next posts. Maybe I’ll even post the results of a mock draft or two to get you an idea of what to look for. Good luck!

Gearing up for Fantasy Football

I can smell it just around the corner. Unknown rookies, superstar veterans, comeback player candidates…it gives me goosebumps thinking about the draft. There is no bigger rush during the season aside from being in the championship game than the opening draft. The fantasy football draft, no different than any other fantasy sports draft, has been said to be the make or break of any fantasy managers season. While it largely depends on who your competition is, I think this largely holds true. While free agency can provide you with plenty of options, you can really set yourself up nicely with a solid draft. I have tried drafting with different strategies, and eich yielded varying results. However, I found the most success was simply drafting by value regardless of position…mostly. I place a lot of factors into a fantasy football players value. Position is an important factor, sometimes more than raw numbers and stats. Anyway, it’s early and we have time to go over some mock draft strategies and review some of the lesser known rookies going into the draft. Until then don’t let the anticipation for the 2010 fantasy football season completely stop you in your tracks…or do!