2010 Consensus Fantasy Team Defense Rankings

1. New York Jets
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Green Bay Packers
5. Baltimore Ravens
6. San Francisco 49ers
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
8. New Orleans Saints
9. Dallas Cowboys
10. San Diego Chargers
11. New York Giants
12. Chicago Bears
13. Miami Dolphins
14. New England Patriots
15. Cincinnati Bengals
16. Arizona Cardinals
17. Indianapolis Colts
18. Houston Texans
19. Carolina Panthers
20. Buffalo Bills
21. Denver Broncos
22. Tennessee Titans
23. Atlanta Falcons
24. Washington Redskins
25. Cleveland Browns
26. Oakland Raiders
27. Seattle Seahawks
28. Kansas City Chiefs
29. Jacksonville Jaguars
30. Detroit Lions
31. St. Louis Rams
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Now let’s take a look at a mock draft I was involved in and see how managers selected when under a little pressure and 13 other managers are hawking after the same players. This is a 14-team league and 15 rounds.

2010 Team Defense Rankings from Mock Draft Results

Round 6
12. New York Jets

Round 8
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Green Bay Packers
5. Pittsburg Steelers
8. Baltimore Ravens
13. San Francisco 49ers

Round  9
4. New York Giants
6. Dallas Cowboys

Round 11
1. Tennessee Titans

Round 12
4. San Diego

Round 13
5. New England Patriots
8. Miami Dolphins
13. New Orleans Saints

Round 14
5. Indianapolis Colts

Round 15
12. Cincinnati Bengals

The rest of the fantasy team defenses went undrafted, as many will in your draft. In the mock draft, you’ll see someone jumped at the NY Jets Defense in the 6th round. I think that was reaching a bit much as most of the elite defense will be picked in the 8th rounds normally. If someone wants to jump early let them, don’t let that influence you. There will be plenty of picks in rounds 8-10. I’ll be looking for a defense in that late 8th or early ninth round, looking for Bal, NYG, Phi or Dal. Although, if you miss out on any of those the Mia, and Cin team defenses should be adequate.

2010 Consensus Fantasy Tight End Rankings

1. Dallas Clark
2. Antonio Gates
3. Vernon Davis
4. Brent Celek
5. Jason Witten
6. Jermichael Finley
7. Tony Gonzalez
8. Owen Daniels
9. Kellen Winslow
10. Visanthe Shiancoe
11. Chris Cooley
12. Zach Miller
13. Heath Miller
14. John Carlson
15. Greg Olsen
16. Jeremy Shockey
17. Dustin Keller
18. Kevin Boss
19. Todd Heap
20. Tony Scheffler
21. Benjamin Watson
22. Fred Davis
23. Bo Scaife
24. Brandon Pettigrew
25. Jermaine Gresham
26. Marcedes Lewis
27. Aaron Hernandez
28. Jared Cook
29. Anthony Fasano
30. Tony Moeaki

These rankings are pretty solid, but there are some great value picks to be had in the later rounds. As well as some upside talent that will either make a great late round flyer or an intelligent waiver wire add later on.

Now let’s take a look at a mock draft I was involved in and see how managers selected when under a little pressure and 13 other managers are hawking after the same guys. This is a 14-team league and 15 rounds so lots of picks.

2010 Tight End Rankings from Mock Draft Results

Round 4
1. Dallas Clark – Ind
3. Vernon Davis – SF
8. Jermichael Finley – GB
Round 5
3. Jason Witten – Dal
5. Brent Celek – Phi
10. Tony Gonzalez – Atl
11. Visanthe Shiancoe – Min
Round 6
2. Owen Daniels – Hou
Round 7
1. John Carlson – Sea
2. Kellen Winslow – TB
4. Zach Miller – Oak
6. Chris Cooley – Was
Round 13
1. Greg Olsen – Chi
4. Dustin Keller – NYJ
6. Mercedes Lewis – Jac
7. Todd Heap – Bal
9. Benjamin Watson – Buf
12. Brandon Pettigrew – Det
Round 14
4. Kevin Boss – NYG
6. Desmond Clark – Chi
7. Heath Miller – Pit
12. Jeremy Shockey – NO
13. Anthony Fasano – Mia
Round 15
9. Martellus Bennet – Dal
13. Jermaine Gresham – Cin

So no tight ends were taken until round 4, and that makes sense as everyone is sr5ambling for top RB, QB and WRs who usually deliver a lot more fantasy production. I read that the average weekly score for TE’s for last season was just over 7 points. That total being the lowest of all positions. Does that mean you need to have the best TE on your team to win a championship? Not really, and in fact most of the top TE spots are very over-valued compared to who you can pick up at other positions at the same point in the draft. Regarding the mock draft results, nothing too crazy although I was surprised to see Tony Gonzalez go as the 6th overall TE taken since he had almost 30 red zone looks last season. And why is anyone still drafting Todd Heap?

OK, now I’ll show you which fantasy tight ends I am targeting this year and who I am not, and why of course.

Rounds 4 and 5
Dallas Clark – Ind: I will be passing on Mr. Clark, simply because I really find it highly unlikely to duplicate his huge season last year. Which this draft position is clearly based on. Plus Manning has so many great targets to spread the ball to. It just makes it hard to justify a pick here.
Jermichael Finley – GB: Had a breakout season last year, and while this player is a beast I try not to pay for breakout seasons.
Vernon Davis – SF: Same reason as Finley, but also a very gifted player. I am not saying these guys are not going to do well. I am just saying I rather have them in round 5, which I am sure they will not be available at.
Jason Witten – Dal: If he falls to round 5 I really consider him, he had 94 catches and I think he should garner at least 5-6 TDs this year.
Tony Gonzalez – Atl: Matt Ryan’s second favorite target after Roddy White. I see another great season for Gonzalez and in fact he might outperform most all other TE’s.
Brent Celek – Phi: He had a great season last year and I don’t see a drop in production. A very good pick for TE in round 5.
Visanthe Shiancoe – Min: Brett Favre loves his TEs so I see a nice number of RZ production from Shiancoe this year.
Rounds 7-8
Owen Daniels – Hou: Still coming back from injury, I will pass on him unless he falls very, very late, say round 9…and again that’s in a 14-team league.
John Carlson – Sea: A lot are picking him as a sleeper, but that means you have to trust Hasselbeck. And I do not, but I do like the future for Charlie Whitehurst as QB.
Zach Miller – Oak: Another sleeper of sorts. Campbell is an upgrade over any previous QB they had last season. He could easily have a very solid season and outperform his draft position.
Kellen Winslow – TB: If Freeman can solidify his play, Winslow may again become fantasy relevant. That’s a big maybe though.
Chris Cooley – Was: Injuries and the play of Fred Davis have hurt his value. But McNabb did reward Celek a lot last year. Perhaps Was TE’s this year will get those kinds of looks.
Remaining Rounds
I’ll just list who I might target at this point either as added depth at tight end or I just completely missed the boat and will pursue upside.
Kevin Boss – NYG: He can be grabbed very late and did get a decent number of TDs from Eli. He is battling an injury right now, but should be back soon. Not a bad late round pickup.
Jermaine Gresham – Cin: Rookie with lots of upside, we’ll see if he gets any targets though with a wide selection of WRs for Palmer to throw to.
That’s really all I have to say about tight ends right now. Next time we’ll look at Team Defenses.

Round 1

Andre Johnson – Hou: A beast who should be considered as a first round choice if all the top RB’s are off the board.

Round 2 – Many of the best and most reliable wide receivers will be claimed in this round. It might be a good idea for you to target a couple here in this round to get a work-horse who can deliver you fantasy gold week in and week out.

Brandon Marshall – Mia: I really like the move to Miami. He was unhappy in Denver, Henne is a very good QB, an upgrade to Kyle Orton, and there is a very good rushing attack opening up the pass. This is a player I hope to score.
Calvin Johnson – Det: This is my next target for WR. Detroit isn’t exactly the epitome of a stellar offense, but Johnson just has a knack for being awesome.
DeSean Jackson – Phi: A playmaker who doesn’t need to catch balls in full stride to score. Even with a rookie QB he will have a great season.
Greg Jennings – GB: Possibly the last wide out I will target in the 2^nd round. Jennings just doesn’t get as much respect as he deserves, but the man is money.

There are a lot of other WR’s I will take if they are the best player in round 2 and they are: Larry Fitzgerald – Ari, Reggie Wayne – Ind, Roddy White – Atl, and if he is available at the end of the 2^nd maybe Randy Moss – NE.

The rest of the wide receivers you will likely see go off the boards are Miles Austin – Dal and Sidney Rice – Min. I just don’t see myself over paying for these guys and that likely goes for Randy Moss too.

Round 3 – There are a couple of great players available in round 3 who may perform like 2^nd rounders. I like all receivers here and they are definitely on my list.

Anquan Boldin – Bal: He has a great supporting cast of receivers to eliminate double coverage on every play, and let’s face it…he is a receiver in a line backers body. He will not make you sorry as long as he stays healthy.
Steve Smith – NYG: As a Giants fan, I watch and follow this guy a lot. He has incredible hands, runs near perfect routes and has the trust of the QB. Had over 100 catches last year, I easily see a repeat.
Marques Colston – NO: Another player much like Boldin, the only downside here is Drew Brees likes to spread the ball A LOT. So Colston can have down games when that happens too much.
Percey Harvin – Min: If the kid can shake the whole migraine headache thing and be available for every game, I don’t see why he can’t improve on last years numbers. And with Favre back, they had a rapport last year…look for that to grow.

Round 4 – Here is a round I will probably focus on another position or make reach for a pick I might not get to in round 5. Not that these are bad players, just slightly over-valued.

Steve Smith – Car: Great talent, question is can the QB get the ball into his hands, and can he avoid injury and/or suspension?
Chad OchoCinco – Cin: I haven’t liked him in years. I think him and T.O. have more interest as a circus act than reliable fantasy options.
Hakeem Nicks – NYG: A wonderful young player who made a lot of DB’s look bad last year on yards after the catch. If Eli is allowed to air it out like last year, then Hicks is a nice investment.
Michael Crabtree – SF: I’m not biting until I see some consistency.

Round 5

Mike Sims-Walker- Jac: He is a great athlete, too bad he has Garrard throwing to him or else he might be a much higher pick.
Dwayne Bowe – KC: Some say he is a big sleeper, I won’t buy that unless he is absolutely the best player available at that pick.
Jeremy Maclin – Phi: 2^nd season, I see D-Jax ball hawking, although with Westbrook gone, there are that many more looks available…this could be the real sleeper of round 5.
Donald Driver – GB: Old faithful. I’m sure he’ll post respectable numbers and if he is the best pick I might just grab him, otherwise I look for upside elsewhere.
Derrick Mason – Bal: Another old faithful, but with Boldin in town, I see a loss in production.

Round 6 and 7 – Ok, I’ll start just listing the wide receivers I will be targeting two rounds at a time.

Pierre Garcon – Ind: I think his production is real. Unless they hand the job back to Anthony Gonzalez, Garcon is the #3 receiver behind Wayne and Dallas Clark in this passing attack.
Mike Wallace – Pit: Him and Ward will be poised for big seasons with Holmes gone.

The only other few I will consider in these two rounds are:

T.J. Houshmandzadeh – Sea: Because he is such a big red zone target.
Dez Bryant – Dal: If and only if that high ankle sprain will not keep him out long.
Steve Breaston – Ari: If Matt Leinart looks like he is making plays, and so far he isn’t.

Round 8 and 9

Jacoby Jones – Hou: A great sleeper pick in the late 8^th or early 9^th round.
Golden Tate – Sea: Might be a good pick if the QB is healthy and making plays.
Mohammed Massapuoi – Cle: Because he is the #1 target there, plain and simple.

Round 10 and 11

Austin Collie – Ind: Round 11 if possible, don’t reach. He should get the ball a lot as the slot receiver again.
Eddie Royal – Den: OK, I said I would avoid all Denver WR’s, but if you can get him in round 11 late, maybe gamble.
Kenny Britt – Ten: Could be the #1 guy in town, just not sure if that means anything.
Mario Manningham – NYG: Needs work on holding onto catchable balls and may get competition from Victor Cruz who caught 3 TDs in pre-season opener.

Remaining Rounds

Arrelious Benn – TB: A nice sleeper option.
Chaz Schilens – Oak: Came on at the end last year and could profit from a more stable QB in Campell.
Dexter McCluster – KC: Could have dual position eligibility and is a great talent.

That’s it for normal leagues. Now if you are in a PPR league, then some players will get a bump in value simply because they get possession receptions, but not big yards and scores. Also, some of the star players will have their rankings improved as they also double as the team’s leading receiver. I’ll simple list three categories, players who get a huge boost for PPR, a very good boost and notable good boost. These boosts mean they should be considered no more than a few positions or at most a round ahead of their respected current projections. Remember though running backs also usually receive the PPR bonus so do not place a WR ahead of an RB that also gets a decent share of receptions, that number being 35 – 50+.

Huge
Brandon Marshall, Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White, Steve Smith (NYG)

Very Good
Percey Harvin, Mike Sims-Walker, Mike Wallace, Mohamed Massaquoi

Good
Donnie Avery

Everyone else is either already very highly ranked or the PPR just doesn’t separate them from others get as well. OK, that’s it for Wide Receivers. Next time we’ll discuss Tight Ends.

2010 Consensus Fantasy Wide Receiver Rankings

1. Andre Johnson
2. Randy Moss
3. Reggie Wayne
4. Larry Fitzgerald
5. Roddy White
6. Calvin Johnson
7. Brandon Marshall
8. Miles Austin
9. DeSean Jackson
10. Greg Jennings
11. Sidney Rice
12. Marques Colston
13. Steve Smith(Car)
14. Steve Smith(NYG)
15. Anquan Boldin
16. ChadOcho Cinco
17. Hines Ward
18. Michael Crabtree
19. Hakeem Nicks
20. Percy Harvin
21. Mike-Sims Walker
22. Dwayne Bowe
23. Pierre Garcon
24. Jeremy Maclin
25. Donald Driver
26. Santana Moss
27. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
28. Wes Welker
29. Vincent Jackson
30. Mike Wallace
31. Derrick Mason
32. Robert Meachem
33. Braylon Edwards
34. Dez Bryant
35. Steve Breaston
36. Devin Aromashodu
37. Malcom Floyd
38. Kenny Britt
39. Lee Evans
40. Santonio Holmes
41. Jerricho Cotchery
42. Antonio Bryant
43. Terrell Owens
44. Devin Hester
45. Johnny Knox
46. Eddie Royal
47. Donnie Avery
48. Austin Collie
49. Jacoby Jones
50. Mohamed Massaquoi
51. Nate Burleson
52. Chris Chambers
53. Jabar Gaffney
54. Golden Tate
55. Chaz Schilens
56. Kevin Walter
57. Bernard Berrian
58. Mario Manningham
59. Mike Williams(TB)
60. Lance Moore
61. Laurent Robinson
62. Anthony Gonzalez

I tend to have the notion that Randy Moss and Sidney Rice are over-valued in the top 10 group. Moss will not have a completely health Wes Welker to draw coverage. And Rice had a break-out season in a sub-par career that warrants caution. A rule I usually follow is to never pay for a break-out season, and I will certainly not make an exception for Rice. I also do not like Matt Leinart as Larry Fitzgerald’s passer, but Fitz is such a beat he makes plays on the ball and doesn’t really require a perfectly thrown pass. Still I tread lightly there as well. Steve Smith in Carolina doesn’t excite me either, seems to be over-valued with Matt Moore at the helm. How does Michael Crabtree get vaulted ahead of Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks and Mike-Sims Walker, three guys I like very much?

Now let’s take a look at a mock draft I was involved in and see how managers selected when under a little pressure and 13 other managers are hawking after the same guys. This is a 14-team league and 15 rounds so lots of picks.

2010 Wide Receiver Rankings From Mock Draft Results

Round 1

8. Andre Johnson – Hou

Round 2

17. Randy Moss – NE

18. Brandon Marshall – Mia

19. Larry Fitzgerald – Ari

20. Miles Austin – Dal

22. Reggie Wayne – Ind

23. Calvin Johnson – Det

24. Roddy White – Ari

25. DeSean Jackson – Phi

26. Sidney Rice – Min

28. Greg Jennings – GB

Round 3

32. Steve Smith – NYG

37. Anquan Boldin – Bal

39. Percy Harvin – Min

41. Marques Colston – NO

Round 4

44. Steve Smith – Car

46. Chad OchoCinco – Cin

52. Hakeen Nicks – NYG

55. Michael Crabtree – SF

Round 5

57. Mike Sims-Walker  – Jac

58. Dwayne Bowe – KC

62. Jeremy Maclin – Phi

69. Donald Driver – GB

70. Derrick Mason – Bal

Round 6

73. Santana Moss – Was

75. Pierre Garcon – Ind

77. Vincent Jackson – SD

78. Mike Wallace – Pit

79. T.J. Houshmandzadeh – Sea

81. Dez Bryant – Dal

83. Robert Meacham – NO

84. Wes Welker – NE

Round 7

87. Steve Breaston – Ari

91. Devin Aromashodu – Chi

94. Braylon Edwards – NYJ

96. Malcom Floyd – SD

98. Santonio Holmes – NYJ

Round 8

105. Devin Hester – Chi

108. Mohamed Massaquoi – Cle

110. Terrell Owens – Cin

112. Golden Tate – Sea

Round 9

117. Jacoby Jones – Hou

121. Johnny Knox – Chi

123.Torry Holt – NE

126. Chris Chambers – KC

Round 10

130. Bernard Berrian – Min

133. Eddie Royal – Chi

Round 11

142. Kenny Britt – Ten

143. Austin Collie – Ind

145. Anthony Gonzalez – Ind

147. Lee Evans – Buf

149. Roy Williams – Det

150. Antonio Bryant – Cin

152. Julian Edelman – NE

153. Demaryius Thomas – Den

154. Mario Manningham – NYG

Round 12

156. Jerricho Cotchery – NYJ

159. Joshua Cribbs – Cle

160. Devin Thomas – Was

161. Donnie Avery – StL

163. Arrelious Benn – TB

165. Chaz Schilens – Oak

Rounds 13 – 15

Nate Washington – Ten

Dexter McCluster – KC

Demetrius Williams – Bal

Damian Williams – Ten

Sam Hurd – Dal

Nate Burleson – Det

Rounds 1-4 went pretty much as I would expect. Again I think Moss, Rice and Crabtree are a little over-valued, but you never know. Hine Ward could be in for a return for big numbers with Holmes gone and a continued commitment to a passing offense. Garcon I think should have been drafted earlier than Maclin, Mason and Moss. He has such a talent for getting open and making plays. Massequoi could be a steal id grabbed as late as this draft had him and Golden Tate could prosper like Austin collie did last year with Houshmandzadeh getting a lot of the attention. I like Jacoby Jones as a late sleeper. I think Chris Chambers in KC will be a solid pick late in the draft if you are weak at WR. Same goes for Berrian with Favre back.

That’s it for Part 1 of 2010 Fantasy Wide Receiver Rankings. Part 2 will go over some common strategies and who I plan to target this year for the wideout position.

The first round I will not comment on because I would take any of these top tier quarterbacks after pick 6 or 7, depending on who fell to those picks. If you are in a league where passing touchdowns are worth 6 points, you really should draft one of the top quarterbacks after missing out on the top running backs. If you check the fantasy points over the last few years you will find Brees, Rodgers, Manning, etc. were easily in the top 10 of all fantasy scoring in those type leagues. Don’t pass them up for a lesser fantasy point contributor like a 2nd tier running back.

Round 1

1. Aaron Rodgers – GB: Any of these three can be the backbone to a championship season.
2. Drew Brees – NO
3. Peyton Manning – Ind

Round 2 – There are still some great Quarterbacks on the table, but with the top three off the board it might be wiser to draft an elite WR or another RB that can set you apart from the rest, while still having options at QB that are desirable. Here I will target one or two guys if I am drafting near or at the turn of round 2 since I will have a couple of picks close together.

1. Tom Brady – NE: I take a gamble on Brady returning to Brady-esque form now that his leg issues are behind him. Again, if i’m near the turn

Round 3 - No need to panic, still a handful of great Quarterback options. Remember to check your cheat sheet and pick that will guarantee you the most points. If it’s a Quarterback, great if not so problem take that play then.

1. Tony Romo – Dal: Dez Bryant will add an element Tony hasn’t had since T.O.
2. Matt Schaub – Hou: Him and Johnson just keep lighting up offenses.

Round 4

1. Brett Favre – Min: Risky pick. Does he play, if so when? If he does play..he is a good pick for late round 4, steal in round 5…again if plays. I won’t be targeting, unless I hear definite news.
2. Philip Rivers – SD: I pass on Rivers. I see SD turning to the run a little bit more. Rivers will still be good, just not round 3 good when I can grab a stellar WR or add depth to my running game.
3. Kevin Kolb – Phi: I have no doubt Kolb will be great this season, but it’s not been proven just yet. Likely some other manager is going to reach on him. Let it go. You can get Eli Manning or Joe Flacco later with same numbers.

Round 5 – If I don’t have a late pick in round 4 or early one in round 5, I probably draft Eli or Flacco.

1. Eli Manning – NYG: Poised for a repeat or better of his 2009 breakout season. His receivers will be better, and more importantly the run game will be back.
2. Joe Flacco – Bal: Fantasy pundits are all over this guy, so why not. With Anquan Boldin, I like his chances.
3. Jay Cutler – Chi: Pass…I have no faith. What more can I say. He was great in Denver with Marshall. He should have been quiet and stayed.

Round 6 and 7 – Most everyone has taken their starting Quarterback by now and if you haven’t, well don;t waste it now on Matt Ryan.

1. Matt Ryan – Atl: Solid pick, nothing sexy. I probably pass though, not convinced he deserves to be selected this high. Gotta love Roddy White though.

Round 8 and9 – If you haven’t gotten a Quarterback yet, then you’ve been unlucky or just been stocking up on great picks at other positions. No problem. You can afford to spend two middle draft picks on Quarterbacks. One for sure should pan out. Best case scenario, you have depth and that means solid backup and you have the options to trade one or play matchups.

1. Matthew Stafford – Det: I pass. I like Calvin Johnson as a target, but he is still feeling his way out. Too risky.
2. Carson Palmer – Cin: I like him as a sleeper candidate, but in years past he has let me down. i think I let my emotion get the better of me andpass. Having said that, if you don’t have a starter yet, spend a pick here.

Round 10

1. Donovan McNabb – Was: Waning years, 20-22 TD’s are a high estimate for a fantasy quarterback with little to no passing options besides double teamed Cooley. Pass.
2. Chad Henne – Mia: This is a player I have targeted all along, he should be available in this round, if not someone overpaid. Brandon Marshall only improves upon what Henne did in his last few games last year.

Remaining Rounds

1. Ben Roethlisberger – Pit: After suspension, will be his normal productive self, could be a steal here as long as you have something to start the season with.
2. Alex Smith – SF: Supposedly sleeper, If no better pick available before my next selection, I might give Smith a shot.
3. Vince Young – Ten: Gained fantasy relevance again…barely.
4. Mark Sanchez – NYJ: Possible Flacco proto-type
5. David Garrard – Jac: Serviceable as a backup for the bye week.
6. Matt Leinart – Ari: This wouldn’t be the worst pick to see if he can take advantage or Fitz and Breaston.
7. Matt Cassel – KC: I really don’t care for any of the remaining Quarterbacks. If I have no backup so be it, one of these guys will there when I need them come bye week. Draft a player at another position with upside. Keep your eye on the wire to see if any of these guys turn out to be productive.
8. Matt Hasselbeck – Sea
9. Kyle Orton – Den
10. Jason Campbell – Oak
11. Matt Moore – Car
12. Josh Freeman – TB
13. Trent Edwards – Buf

I’ll try and get into a coupe more mock drafts and see how things turn out. I suggest you do the same or just check back. Next we’ll look at the guys these Quarterbacks will be tossing deep bombs to.

2010 Consensus Fantasy Quarterback Rankings

1. Drew Brees – NO
2. Aaron Rodgers – GB
3. Peyton Manning – Ind
4. Tony Romo – Dal
5. Matt Schaub – Hou
6. Tom Brady – NE
7. Philip Rivers – SD
8. Jay Cutler – Chi
9. Kevin Kolb – Phi
10. Brett Favre – Min
11. Eli Manning – NYG
12. Matt Ryan – Atl
13. Joe Flacco – Bal
14. Matthew Stafford – Det
15. Carson Palmer – Cin
16. Donovan McNabb – Was
17. Chad Henne – Mia
18. Ben Roethlisberger – Pit
19. Alex Smith – SF
20. Vince Young – Ten
21. Mark Sanchez – NYJ
22. David Garrard – Jac
23. Matt Leinart – Ari
24. Matt Cassel – KC
25. Matt Hasselbeck – Sea
26. Kyle Orton – Den
27. Jason Campbell – Oak
28. Matt Moore – Car
29. Josh Freeman – TB
30. Trent Edwards – Buf

I actually think this is a pretty solid Fantasy Quarterback Ranking. I do think a few guys are being overvalued like Rivers, Cutler, Young, and you know what even Tom Brady somewhat. Yes, Brady is great, but who is he going to throw to? And the run game is suspect still, with no help from the draft. Too big of question to take as the #4 overall Fantasy Quarterback. There are guys way after them I rather have rostered. The undervalued picks that pop out at me immediately are Sanchez and Henne. He finished strong at the end of last year and now he has Brandon Marshall. All systems are go. Now, all Sanchez did was take his team to the playoffs in his rookie campaign. I know that doesn’t matter in fantasy, but it does implicitly if you figure he conquered some major growing pains early. Consider Sanchez a Flacco proto-type, with a slightly less powerful arm. If I had to pick sleepers I might say, and starting from biggest reach downward…Leinart, remember Fitzgerald and Breaston? Alex Smith…same O-Coordinator and honestly he needs to perform or he might be done. Henne could easily out perform his rank by 4-5 spots.

Now let’s take a look at a mock draft I was involved in and see how managers selected when under a little pressure and 13 other managers are hawking after the same guys. This is a 14-team league and 15 rounds so lots of picks.

2010 Quarterback Rankings From Mock Draft Results

Round 1
6. Aaron Rodgers – GB
9. Drew Brees – NO
10. Peyton Manning – Ind

Round 3
29. Tom Brady – NE
30. Tony Romo – Dal
31. Matt Schaub – Hou
33. Philip Rivers – SD

Round 4
53. Kevin Kolb – Phi

Round 5
63. Brett Favre – Min
64. Jay Cutler – Chi
68. Eli Manning – NYG

Round 6
71. Joe Flacco – Bal

Round 7
83. Matt Ryan – Atl

Round 8
88. Carson Palmer – Cin

Round 9
120. Donovan McNabb – Was

Round 10
135. Matthew Stafford – Det

Rounds 11 – 15
Alex Smith – SF
Ben Roethlisberger – Pit
Chad Henne – Mia
Vince Young – Ten
Kyle Orton – Den
Matt Hasselbeck – Sea
Matt Cassel – KC
Mark Sanchez – NYJ
Josh Johnson – TB
Byron Leftwich – Pit

Wow, I was totally shocked that Leinart and Garrard were not drafted at all. Seriously, Leinart could prove us all stupid and just step out of the shadows and take advantage of his talented receivers. So you saw the elite 3 go in round one and I completely agree as long as those picks come after the top 6-7 running backs. Especially if you are in a league, and a lot of us are, where Quarterbacks get 6 fantasy points per passing touchdown. I think Eli Manning will repeat last years numbers, possibly increase his TD output as his young receivers improve and the running game resurfaces. So Eli is a great pick at #68.

That’s it for Part 1 of 2010 Fantasy Quarterback Rankings. Part 2 will go over some common strategies and who I plan to target this year for quarterback.

Round 1

1. Chris Johnson – Ten: No brainer! Look picks 1-6 are pretty solid, you can’t go wrong with any of these fantasy studs.
2. Adrian Peterson – Min
3. Maurice Jones-Drew – Jac
4. Ray Rice – Bal
5. Michael Turner – Atl
6. Frank Gore – SF
7. Rashard Mendenhall – Pit: This is where I probably pass on an RB in the 1st round. I rather take one of the top rated QB’s at this point in the 1st round. Mendenhall fumbled all last year and has fumbled twice in training camp this year.
8. Ryan Mathews – SD: I probably pass here as well. Unless I am in a keeper league. He will probably be very good, but not sure if this rookie is worth my #1 pick. Now should Mendenhall or Mathews slip to the 2nd rounds, then I might pull the trigger.

Round 2

1. Shonn Greene – NYJ: is the first running back I will target for the 2nd round. Jones is gone, LT won’t do much. Greene will be a monster!
2. DeAngelo Williams – Car: The next running back I will target, BUT if I got a premier running back in the first round I will probably see if Brees or Rodgers are available here, if not grab Williams. He is a year removed from a campaign year. But if he can improve on even last year somewhat he is a solid pick.
3. Ryan Grant- GB: I pass here. Overrated.

Round 3

1. Pierre Thomas – NO: Thomas is a steal in the 3rd round, otherwise I fill my WR slots. You might even grab him as high as the end of the second as you’ll be able to get a top WR in the 3rd near the turn.
2. Jamaal Charles- KC: I think this kid has awesome talent. But I think KC got Thomas Jones for a reason, and thats to save Charles of a workload that will save him for next year. Let someone else gamble on a breakout season.
3. Steven Jackson – StL: Great value pick for the 3rd round.
4. Beanie Wells- Ari: I pass on Wells every time unless he slips to the 6th round or later. I’ll let someone else overpay.
5. LeSean McCoy- Phi: I really like McCoy. I want him and I think he is an OK value in round 3, but I am nervous of his size as the feature back. New QB in Kolb should be fine, Andy Reid should be able to put together a scheme that McCoy can succeed in.
6. Knowshon Moreno – Den: A lot of people are touting him as the sleeper of the draft. I have no idea. All I know is…you never draft a Denver running back. But that was under Shanahan. If I already have two backs I pass. I still might pass for a higher ranked WR or QB. I rather seem him slip into the 4th.
7. Jahvid Best – Det: If this is a keeper league, then maybe I grab him. Otherwise, I just don’t see any running back being very good in the Detriot lineup.

Round 4

1. Cedric Benson – Cin: Great value pick in round 4, should be the featured man.
2. Jonathan Stewart – Car: If Williams goes down, Stewart will be money. But if I own DeAngelo it’s hard to take a handcuff in round 4. Williams is the yardage guy and Stewart likely gets goal line touches. So, taking Stewart here has upside.
3. Matt Forte – Chi: Forte not getting enough love, good pick in round 4
4. Ronnie Brown – Mia: Grrr! Ronnie Brown has screwed me in fantasy playoffs so many times. Can he stay healthy. Will he perform huge in a contract year? I don’t know, I think I finally look elsewhere…UNLESS Brown slips into round 7…then I gamble…again.
5. Brandon Jacobs – NYG: If for some reason I do not have my 2nd running back yet. I jump on Jacobs now. He could slip to round 5 or even 6 where I drafted him in the mock draft. But why risk it. His knees are healthy and he has a chip on his shoulder to prove his and the entire Giants are better than the 8-8 team they were last year.
6. Joseph Addai – Ind: I pass. Never liked him much. Could be he really screwed me as my overall top pick on ’08. I actually want to target Donald “DUCK!” Brown in some later rounds.

Round 5

1. Felix Jones – Dal: Speedster who can rip one off to the endzone any play. Slight health risk? Depends on who all is available here, but worth a look.
2. Reggie Bush- NO: Why does anyone draft this guy? He seems to have such inconsistent fantasy relevance. I pass always.
3. Marion Barber – Dal: Could return to top form, but Dal has a three-headed monster in Barber, Jone and Choice. Touches will be an issue. Definitely worth considering here though.
4. C.J. Spiller – Buf: Tremendous back with play-making skills. Can he overcome a bad O-line and poor passing game? Depending on how soon my next pick is and who else is available will determine how I go here. By no means though am I targeting this guy high though.

After this point I better have at least two solid running backs, and possibly three. There are very few guys I will be targeting from here on out so I’ll just list the player and what round I hope he is available in but not before.

Remaining Rounds

1. Michael Bush – Oak: Maybe just maybe in the 6th if he stands out as the best option for your fantasy team.
2. Jerome Harrison – Cle: If I am desperate for a 3rd back, I’ll grab him in round 7. Otherwise wait for 8 or even 9 if you think he’ll last.
3. Ricky Williams – Mia: I’ll take him in round 8 if he is the best available, round 9 or later would be nicer.
4. Steve Slaton – Hou: He was great in ’08. If he stays healthy, can be a real sleeper in round 8 or later.
5. Ahmad Bradshaw – NYG: Surgery on both feet, so watch closely any reports. But he has prolific speed and could be pined for a comeback year. 10 th or later.
6. Donald Brown – Ind: I’m targeting this guy for sure, I’ll probably reach if available in the 9th or later.
7. Tim Hightower – Ari: The probably goal line back available in round 10. Possible starter too.
8. Willis McGahee – Bal: I don’t particular like him, but he will likely get the goal line touches. Might wait for 11th, 10th if in need of running back depth.
9. Ben Tate – Hou: He is injured right now, so a possible complete pass in the draft. However, if he returns to camp worth a late round selection.
10. If LT and Clinton Portis make it past the 9th rounds, hey give a look at least! =)

In part 1 we talked about strategies to be taken into consideration, don’t get too caught up in this. In my experience, if you have prepared, researched and come to the draft with a realistic group of players you will target in each round. Then you will be fine, never panic and use you instinct. It’s more fun this way. One staple of advice is to always try and draft the handcuff to one of your top 2 starting running backs. A handcuff is the next player on the depth chart. This will protect your investment. Also, keep an eye on bye weeks. I don’t know how many times I have drafted all of one position and all my guys have the same bye week. Man that’s frustrating! Remember to try and keep your emotions out of it as much as possible. If you are going to drink while drafting, try and be moderate. Keep updated on your targeted players all the way up to the day of the draft. Sucks to draft an injured guy. I will do my best to post one final quick list of rankings per position in the waning weeks of most drafts to compensate for injuries and what not! Other than that, get a good nights rest, have fun and goodluck. Draft day doesn’t have to be a make or break event for you. Shoot us a comment or email if you have any specific questions!

Drafting a running back isn’t like the old days (5 or more years ago), where you always drafted 2-3 RB’s in your first 3 draft picks. You now have to place value on carries, offensive line, passing attack and depth chart…shoot maybe even schedule. It’s really just getting more complicated than it should be. But there are some simple strategies you can take into account that should help you out. In part 1 of this segment, we’ll take a look at the 2010 Running Back Fantasy Football Rankings that seem to be the consensus across the net. Then we’ll look at which order Running Backs were selected in a mock draft that I participated in over the weekend.

In part 2 of this segment, we’ll build a ranking that reflects both lists with some sort of analysis. If all you are looking for is a quick look at a how the 2010 Running Black class is ranked. Just use the first list below. If you are interested in breaking down rankings further keep reading.

2010 Typical Running Back Rankings

1. Chris Johnson – Ten
2. Adrian Peterson – Min
3. Maurice Jones-Drew – Jac
4. Ray Rice – Bal
5. Michael Turner – Atl
6. Frank Gore – SF
7. Rashard Mendenhall – Pit
8. Ryan Mathews – SD
9. DeAngelo Williams – Car
10. Steven Jackson – StL
11. Shonn Greene – NYJ
12. Jamaal Charles – KC
13. Ryan Grant – GB
14. Pierre Thomas – NO
15. Beanie Wells – Ari
16. Jahvid Best – Det
17. Cedric Benson – Cin
18. LeSean McCoy – Phi
19. Knowshon Moreno – Den
20. Jonathan Stewart – Car
21. Joseph Addai – Ind
22. Felix Jones – Dal
23. Ronnie Brown – Mia
24. Reggie Bush – NO
25. Matt Forte – Chi
26. Justin Forsett – Sea
27. Brandon Jacobs – NYG
28. Ricky Williams – Mia
29. Ahmad Bradshaw – NYG
30. Fred Jackson – Buf
31. Marion Barber – Dal
32. Jerome Harrison – Cle
33. C.J. Spiller – Buf
34. Ladanian Tomlinson – NYJ
35. Clinton Portis – Was

For the most part, I think the 20 running backs in that list belong and are pretty appropriately ranked. But we’ll get to guys I would target instead in a moment. Now, take a look at a mock draft I was in and let’s see how close these lists are when guys are selecting under the gun of a timer, using emotion (which can be translated as passion, and that can be a good thing!), but not logic. And reaction to other positional runs.

You know how it is; you are cruising through the first round and you already to take a 2nd running back because pretty much all the QB’s are still out there. You don’t have a pick for 8 picks and all of a sudden 4 more QB’s are off the board! Panic Attack! You worry you won’t have a decent QB available, you take the next highest rated QB on your turn who you weren’t even considering. Don’t be bullied into a poor decision. It’s true you may not have a top tier QB, but you have two advantages to your side. There is always a breakout QB available in the mid tiers, so you’ll just have to target maybe 2 picks to go to QB’s in the middle rounds and hopefully your percentage play pans out. Also, that QB run their led to a lot of players on the board for you that should have not been there for you but are. Bingo! Value picks!

OK, so this mock draft results were a 14 team league, and snake ordered draft. Compare this list from the top list. You’ll notice the first two rounds are similar, but then the reaching begins.

2010 Running Back Rankings From Mock Draft Results

1. Chris Johnson – Ten
2. Adrian Peterson – Min
3. Maurice Jones-Drew – Jac
4. Ray Rice – Bal
5. Michael Turner – Atl
6. Frank Gore – SF
7. Felix Jones – Dal
8. Rashard Mendenhall – Pit
9. Ryan Mathews – SD
10. Steven Jackson – StL (End of 1st Round)
11. Jamaal Charles – KC
12. DeAngelo Williams – Car
13. Shonn Greene – NYJ
14. Ryan Grant – GB (End of 2nd Round)
15. Pierre Thomas – NO
16. Beanie Wells – Ari
17. LeSean McCoy – Phi
18. Knowshon Moreno – Den
19. Jahvid Best – Det (End of 3rd Round)
20. Jonathan Stewart – Car
21. Cedric Benson – Cin
22. Joseph Addai – Ind
23. Ronnie Brown – Mia
24. Matt Forte – Chi (End of 4th Round)
25. Reggie Bush – NO
26. Marion Barber – Dal (End of 5th Round)
27. Thomas Jones – KC
28. Clinton Portis – Was
29. Brandon Jacobs – NYG (End of 6th Round)
30. Michael Bush – Oak
31. Ricky Williams – Mia
32. C.J. Spiller – Buf
33. Laurence Maroney – NE (End of 7th Round)
34. Chester Taylor- Chi (Rounds 8 – 11 follow)
35. Ahmad Bradshaw – NYG
36. Justin Forsett – Sea
37. Fred Jackson – Buf
38. Jerome Harrsion – Cle
39. Ben Tate – Hou
40. LaDainian Tomlinson – NYJ
41. Montario Hardesty – Cle
42. Steve Slaton – Hou
43. Carnell Williams – TB
44. Arian Foster – Hou
45. Darren Sproles – SD
46. Donald Brown – Ind
47. Darren McFadden – Oak
48. Julius Jones – Sea
49. Kevin Smith – Det (Rounds 13-15 follow)
50. Willis McGahee – Bal
51. Tim Hightower – Ari
52. Dexter McCluster – KC
53. Marshawn Lynch – Buf
54. Glen Coffee – SF
55. Tashard Choice – Dal
56. Larry Johnson – Was

Soak it all in. Then ask yourself…how does Tim Hightower slip to round 13, pick 182? I’ll start with the top 3 running back most slighted in this fantasy mock draft selected after round 8 and note who shouldn’t have slipped this far and at what pick.

1. Tim Hightower round 13, pick 182: This guy is a goal line hawk. He is going to compete with Wells for the starting gig, but he has stated he is motivated to keep his starter label. Wells has also been criticized by teammates as “soft.” That can’t be good. You really want to take a gamble on Hightower after the 10th round or so but don’t expect him to slip this deep in most leagues.
2. Jerome Harrison round 10, pick 129: This is just a slap in th eface to Harrison and the entire Browns squad. Hardesty just injured his knee, so Harrison is definitely the feature back. He had a solid end of season. I suppose the big scare is injury proneness and a lack of a passing game…like seriously none.
3. Steve Slaton round 10, pick 136: OK, maybe everyone is afraid of the fumbles, the neck surgery and the selection of Ben Tate in the NFL draft by Houston. Still, until otherwise noted, Slaton is the starting RB for a great passing team, that has red zone issues at times and turns to the run.

We’ll stop here, and pick up in part 2 just some simple strategies to take advantage of some of the poor moves almost always made by other managers.

I’ve won a good percentage or at least finished in the top 3 in the majority of fantasy leagues I participate in. I attribute my success to understanding the impact of the real football game versus the fantasy football game. The rest is studying the value of certain players. There are going to be some players that you pretty much know what you get year ;in and out. These would be guys like Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew and so on. Guys like these are committed to winning and have the talent to excel at the pro level. Without at least a few of these type fantasy football players targeted in your draft you won’t stand a chance. But the real difference between the average drafter and the great drafter is identifying a great value pick.

Take, for instance, this years 2010 fantasy football draft. I have no doubt in my mind that the top 5 players selected in 90% of drafts will include a few names such as Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Jones-Drew, Michael Turner, Drew Brees, Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. Trust me, there will be some combination of these guys off the board in the first round for sure. And yes, this year if you are not selecting Chris Johnson with the number one overall pick then I hope your league awards 6 points for TDs or is a PPR league. The point is, we have an idea of who is going to be off the board in the top of the first round. However, say you draft at the turn or last and assuming your league uses the typical snake draft. Your team gets back-to-back picks, and you will wait a long time to pick again. So you better pick wisely.

Some players will tell you that you always draft two running backs with your first two picks. This is absurd because it totally depends on your league scoring format. If QB’s get 6 points for TDs thrown, then a top tier QB is worth quite a bit. More so, RBs have the tendency to get hurt, giving opportunity to younger RBs to show what they can do, giving you ample chances to snag one of these guys up throughout the year. Where otherwise, you are likely stuck with the QB you drafted unless you make a trade or someone has a sleeper type breakout performance at the Quarterback position.

Admittedly, I love the running back position, but personally (and not following any particular order) I try to draft 1 Quarterback, 1 Wide Receiver, 2 Running Backs and a flex player meaning either a RB or WR. Whoever is rated highest by your standards or someone else’s if you’re just are not sure.

Begin the season by preparing for the draft at least a week in advance. Although, if you really want to be prepared several weeks in advance would be better. When the late rounds come and a player like Brent Celek is available as late as pick 135, you should be the one anticipating his underrated value and capitalize on that pick. Trust me, I don’t care how big of a football fan you are, near the end of a draft, especially the last 3-4 rounds of a 14-16 round draft, you start to get glassy-eyed and the names start requiring a deeper search into your mind. Not only that but sometimes the players you want are not always ranked as you would expect. So in these last few rounds the time to make a selection seems to just burn off for you. This is where early preparation really helps. It gives you an edge in identifying the player you want and if you practiced mock drafts (and you should do at least one), you have an idea what will happen almost predicting picks.

Kickers, Tight-Ends and Defences usually don’t get drafted too high by me, and again this depends on your league. I am in one money league where the TE position gets I think 1.25x the scoring of a typical WR and, if they break the 80 yard threshold, a 5 point bonus. Wanna know why? Most TE’s never accomplish this in a single game, let alone across a season. Even Antonio Gates, who I have had in this league one year only capitalized a hand full of times on these bonuses. Sure when that happens its awesome, but think about where you would have to draft Gates. You are probably missing out on Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Jackson, or any other number of players that will likely outperform the TE position, including Gates, each week on average. But this is a judgement call and an opinion, one you have to make.

Mock drafts are great. You don’t even need to join an actual draft, just go to whatever site your league will be in and look at the pre-rankings area. You can assign yourself a draft slot and practice your own mock draft. When I do this I don’t practice every single possible draft slot. You’ll usually have a very good idea of what will happen simply by practicing the first, last and a middle slot. When you finish any mock draft look at your results. What do you think of your team? This is your chance to evaluate any weaknesses, but definitely identify your strengths. Could you have selected a different player in another round who would have been available to address this weakness and perhaps sacrifice your area of strength? A balanced fantasy team is one built for the playoffs, but making the playoffs is only your first step. I have noticed balanced teams do not perform so great in championship games. This is usually because of a few factors. One, you do not have any one area that dominates on scoring. Two, your star players play for teams that in real life play for perennial contenders and they get rested in the waning weeks – meaning you just lost your some of your pop, big-time! This can be countered near the end of the season with a trade in your favor or free agent hoarding of promising players who could potentially replace those types of rested players at the end of the season.

Now that you have been through your mock drafts. You have an idea of who will be available when you select. It’s just as important to know who you don’t want to select. A popular phrase in fantasy sports is to “never pay for a breakout season.” Ever. I fully stand behind this. Roster changes, trades, free-agency, injury, age and luck always play a vital role at the start of each season to evaluate players. If a guy is a rookie or has been a mediocre player in years past, but has a very great season do not overpay. I am not saying you can’t target them, but definitely assign this player a proper value rank. If he has yet to really prove himself, do not select him above a guy who can provide similar numbers and has proved it for years. Let someone else over pay. And you know why if you have been in many drafts. Guys you might have wanted to target who probably were not available in your mock drafts start to fall through. They begin to gain value by being undervalued by others. Capitalize on these anomalies that happen every single football draft.

OK, so since the rest of the draft relies on studying which players to target, we’ll address that in our next posts. Maybe I’ll even post the results of a mock draft or two to get you an idea of what to look for. Good luck!