2010 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings: Part 1

The 2010 Fantasy Football Season looms, and we are all jonesin’ for a look at the positional rankings for the upcoming fantasy drafts. Today we will analyze Fantasy Running Backs. This is becoming a more troubling position each season as more teams move away from the feature back, and more and more NFL teams are moving to a tandem system of some sort. Whether it be the yard gainer and goal line back, or the change of pace, bull up the middle then elusive speed to the outside. Fantasy football managers will be affected one way or the other.

Drafting a running back isn’t like the old days (5 or more years ago), where you always drafted 2-3 RB’s in your first 3 draft picks. You now have to place value on carries, offensive line, passing attack and depth chart…shoot maybe even schedule. It’s really just getting more complicated than it should be. But there are some simple strategies you can take into account that should help you out. In part 1 of this segment, we’ll take a look at the 2010 Running Back Fantasy Football Rankings that seem to be the consensus across the net. Then we’ll look at which order Running Backs were selected in a mock draft that I participated in over the weekend.

In part 2 of this segment, we’ll build a ranking that reflects both lists with some sort of analysis. If all you are looking for is a quick look at a how the 2010 Running Black class is ranked. Just use the first list below. If you are interested in breaking down rankings further keep reading.

2010 Typical Running Back Rankings

1. Chris Johnson – Ten
2. Adrian Peterson – Min
3. Maurice Jones-Drew – Jac
4. Ray Rice – Bal
5. Michael Turner – Atl
6. Frank Gore – SF
7. Rashard Mendenhall – Pit
8. Ryan Mathews – SD
9. DeAngelo Williams – Car
10. Steven Jackson – StL
11. Shonn Greene – NYJ
12. Jamaal Charles – KC
13. Ryan Grant – GB
14. Pierre Thomas – NO
15. Beanie Wells – Ari
16. Jahvid Best – Det
17. Cedric Benson – Cin
18. LeSean McCoy – Phi
19. Knowshon Moreno – Den
20. Jonathan Stewart – Car
21. Joseph Addai – Ind
22. Felix Jones – Dal
23. Ronnie Brown – Mia
24. Reggie Bush – NO
25. Matt Forte – Chi
26. Justin Forsett – Sea
27. Brandon Jacobs – NYG
28. Ricky Williams – Mia
29. Ahmad Bradshaw – NYG
30. Fred Jackson – Buf
31. Marion Barber – Dal
32. Jerome Harrison – Cle
33. C.J. Spiller – Buf
34. Ladanian Tomlinson – NYJ
35. Clinton Portis – Was

For the most part, I think the 20 running backs in that list belong and are pretty appropriately ranked. But we’ll get to guys I would target instead in a moment. Now, take a look at a mock draft I was in and let’s see how close these lists are when guys are selecting under the gun of a timer, using emotion (which can be translated as passion, and that can be a good thing!), but not logic. And reaction to other positional runs.

You know how it is; you are cruising through the first round and you already to take a 2nd running back because pretty much all the QB’s are still out there. You don’t have a pick for 8 picks and all of a sudden 4 more QB’s are off the board! Panic Attack! You worry you won’t have a decent QB available, you take the next highest rated QB on your turn who you weren’t even considering. Don’t be bullied into a poor decision. It’s true you may not have a top tier QB, but you have two advantages to your side. There is always a breakout QB available in the mid tiers, so you’ll just have to target maybe 2 picks to go to QB’s in the middle rounds and hopefully your percentage play pans out. Also, that QB run their led to a lot of players on the board for you that should have not been there for you but are. Bingo! Value picks!

OK, so this mock draft results were a 14 team league, and snake ordered draft. Compare this list from the top list. You’ll notice the first two rounds are similar, but then the reaching begins.

2010 Running Back Rankings From Mock Draft Results

1. Chris Johnson – Ten
2. Adrian Peterson – Min
3. Maurice Jones-Drew – Jac
4. Ray Rice – Bal
5. Michael Turner – Atl
6. Frank Gore – SF
7. Felix Jones – Dal
8. Rashard Mendenhall – Pit
9. Ryan Mathews – SD
10. Steven Jackson – StL (End of 1st Round)
11. Jamaal Charles – KC
12. DeAngelo Williams – Car
13. Shonn Greene – NYJ
14. Ryan Grant – GB (End of 2nd Round)
15. Pierre Thomas – NO
16. Beanie Wells – Ari
17. LeSean McCoy – Phi
18. Knowshon Moreno – Den
19. Jahvid Best – Det (End of 3rd Round)
20. Jonathan Stewart – Car
21. Cedric Benson – Cin
22. Joseph Addai – Ind
23. Ronnie Brown – Mia
24. Matt Forte – Chi (End of 4th Round)
25. Reggie Bush – NO
26. Marion Barber – Dal (End of 5th Round)
27. Thomas Jones – KC
28. Clinton Portis – Was
29. Brandon Jacobs – NYG (End of 6th Round)
30. Michael Bush – Oak
31. Ricky Williams – Mia
32. C.J. Spiller – Buf
33. Laurence Maroney – NE (End of 7th Round)
34. Chester Taylor- Chi (Rounds 8 – 11 follow)
35. Ahmad Bradshaw – NYG
36. Justin Forsett – Sea
37. Fred Jackson – Buf
38. Jerome Harrsion – Cle
39. Ben Tate – Hou
40. LaDainian Tomlinson – NYJ
41. Montario Hardesty – Cle
42. Steve Slaton – Hou
43. Carnell Williams – TB
44. Arian Foster – Hou
45. Darren Sproles – SD
46. Donald Brown – Ind
47. Darren McFadden – Oak
48. Julius Jones – Sea
49. Kevin Smith – Det (Rounds 13-15 follow)
50. Willis McGahee – Bal
51. Tim Hightower – Ari
52. Dexter McCluster – KC
53. Marshawn Lynch – Buf
54. Glen Coffee – SF
55. Tashard Choice – Dal
56. Larry Johnson – Was

Soak it all in. Then ask yourself…how does Tim Hightower slip to round 13, pick 182? I’ll start with the top 3 running back most slighted in this fantasy mock draft selected after round 8 and note who shouldn’t have slipped this far and at what pick.

1. Tim Hightower round 13, pick 182: This guy is a goal line hawk. He is going to compete with Wells for the starting gig, but he has stated he is motivated to keep his starter label. Wells has also been criticized by teammates as “soft.” That can’t be good. You really want to take a gamble on Hightower after the 10th round or so but don’t expect him to slip this deep in most leagues.
2. Jerome Harrison round 10, pick 129: This is just a slap in th eface to Harrison and the entire Browns squad. Hardesty just injured his knee, so Harrison is definitely the feature back. He had a solid end of season. I suppose the big scare is injury proneness and a lack of a passing game…like seriously none.
3. Steve Slaton round 10, pick 136: OK, maybe everyone is afraid of the fumbles, the neck surgery and the selection of Ben Tate in the NFL draft by Houston. Still, until otherwise noted, Slaton is the starting RB for a great passing team, that has red zone issues at times and turns to the run.

We’ll stop here, and pick up in part 2 just some simple strategies to take advantage of some of the poor moves almost always made by other managers.