I’ve won a good percentage or at least finished in the top 3 in the majority of fantasy leagues I participate in. I attribute my success to understanding the impact of the real football game versus the fantasy football game. The rest is studying the value of certain players. There are going to be some players that you pretty much know what you get year ;in and out. These would be guys like Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew and so on. Guys like these are committed to winning and have the talent to excel at the pro level. Without at least a few of these type fantasy football players targeted in your draft you won’t stand a chance. But the real difference between the average drafter and the great drafter is identifying a great value pick.

Take, for instance, this years 2010 fantasy football draft. I have no doubt in my mind that the top 5 players selected in 90% of drafts will include a few names such as Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Jones-Drew, Michael Turner, Drew Brees, Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. Trust me, there will be some combination of these guys off the board in the first round for sure. And yes, this year if you are not selecting Chris Johnson with the number one overall pick then I hope your league awards 6 points for TDs or is a PPR league. The point is, we have an idea of who is going to be off the board in the top of the first round. However, say you draft at the turn or last and assuming your league uses the typical snake draft. Your team gets back-to-back picks, and you will wait a long time to pick again. So you better pick wisely.

Some players will tell you that you always draft two running backs with your first two picks. This is absurd because it totally depends on your league scoring format. If QB’s get 6 points for TDs thrown, then a top tier QB is worth quite a bit. More so, RBs have the tendency to get hurt, giving opportunity to younger RBs to show what they can do, giving you ample chances to snag one of these guys up throughout the year. Where otherwise, you are likely stuck with the QB you drafted unless you make a trade or someone has a sleeper type breakout performance at the Quarterback position.

Admittedly, I love the running back position, but personally (and not following any particular order) I try to draft 1 Quarterback, 1 Wide Receiver, 2 Running Backs and a flex player meaning either a RB or WR. Whoever is rated highest by your standards or someone else’s if you’re just are not sure.

Begin the season by preparing for the draft at least a week in advance. Although, if you really want to be prepared several weeks in advance would be better. When the late rounds come and a player like Brent Celek is available as late as pick 135, you should be the one anticipating his underrated value and capitalize on that pick. Trust me, I don’t care how big of a football fan you are, near the end of a draft, especially the last 3-4 rounds of a 14-16 round draft, you start to get glassy-eyed and the names start requiring a deeper search into your mind. Not only that but sometimes the players you want are not always ranked as you would expect. So in these last few rounds the time to make a selection seems to just burn off for you. This is where early preparation really helps. It gives you an edge in identifying the player you want and if you practiced mock drafts (and you should do at least one), you have an idea what will happen almost predicting picks.

Kickers, Tight-Ends and Defences usually don’t get drafted too high by me, and again this depends on your league. I am in one money league where the TE position gets I think 1.25x the scoring of a typical WR and, if they break the 80 yard threshold, a 5 point bonus. Wanna know why? Most TE’s never accomplish this in a single game, let alone across a season. Even Antonio Gates, who I have had in this league one year only capitalized a hand full of times on these bonuses. Sure when that happens its awesome, but think about where you would have to draft Gates. You are probably missing out on Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Jackson, or any other number of players that will likely outperform the TE position, including Gates, each week on average. But this is a judgement call and an opinion, one you have to make.

Mock drafts are great. You don’t even need to join an actual draft, just go to whatever site your league will be in and look at the pre-rankings area. You can assign yourself a draft slot and practice your own mock draft. When I do this I don’t practice every single possible draft slot. You’ll usually have a very good idea of what will happen simply by practicing the first, last and a middle slot. When you finish any mock draft look at your results. What do you think of your team? This is your chance to evaluate any weaknesses, but definitely identify your strengths. Could you have selected a different player in another round who would have been available to address this weakness and perhaps sacrifice your area of strength? A balanced fantasy team is one built for the playoffs, but making the playoffs is only your first step. I have noticed balanced teams do not perform so great in championship games. This is usually because of a few factors. One, you do not have any one area that dominates on scoring. Two, your star players play for teams that in real life play for perennial contenders and they get rested in the waning weeks – meaning you just lost your some of your pop, big-time! This can be countered near the end of the season with a trade in your favor or free agent hoarding of promising players who could potentially replace those types of rested players at the end of the season.

Now that you have been through your mock drafts. You have an idea of who will be available when you select. It’s just as important to know who you don’t want to select. A popular phrase in fantasy sports is to “never pay for a breakout season.” Ever. I fully stand behind this. Roster changes, trades, free-agency, injury, age and luck always play a vital role at the start of each season to evaluate players. If a guy is a rookie or has been a mediocre player in years past, but has a very great season do not overpay. I am not saying you can’t target them, but definitely assign this player a proper value rank. If he has yet to really prove himself, do not select him above a guy who can provide similar numbers and has proved it for years. Let someone else over pay. And you know why if you have been in many drafts. Guys you might have wanted to target who probably were not available in your mock drafts start to fall through. They begin to gain value by being undervalued by others. Capitalize on these anomalies that happen every single football draft.

OK, so since the rest of the draft relies on studying which players to target, we’ll address that in our next posts. Maybe I’ll even post the results of a mock draft or two to get you an idea of what to look for. Good luck!

Milwaukee has a couple of possible trade candidates in Prince Fielder and Corey Hart. You know what you get in Fielder, but Hart has been a homerun  factory it seems this year…well in Corey Hart standards. Roy Oswalt is a topic of hot discussion. He would be a welcomed arm to any contender, only problem is his huge salary and no-trade clause. Also, the Astro’s asking price has been said to be way too high. Still, this might be a good time to throw a buy-low trade offer to an Oswalt owner and take a gamble. Even if he doesn’t get traded he is the staff ace and Pence is on fire again and Carlos Lee can’t flirt with the mendoza line all year right…right? Derrick Lee, Carlos Pena, Jorge Cantu and Jose Guillen have also been shown interest. Of these names only Cantu really stands out as someone who could really prosper from this. Guillen also is a solid hitter, who has been a nice run producer. It would be interesting to see. Jayson Werth is someone the Phillies might try to move and given his present position on a great team, I would think this a downgrade anywhere he went that makes sense. Finally the Diamond Backs, word is their entire roster is free for the choosing aside from probably Justin Upton, but with Haren already ushered who else do we care about?

First Base

Gaby Sanchez- FLA: This guy is relatively very unowned. While batting over .300 on the year and 11 dingers.
Ike Davis – NYM: Lately a power surge with 3 round-trippers this week and 6 RBIs. Will not help your Avg.
Michael Morse – WAS: Great hitter has been hot in spot starts. Needs more playing time, but Adam Dunn trade could provide that. Keep tabs on this guy for sure.

Second Base

Neil Walker - PIT: A talented young player who has been a very consistenthitter for over a month. Will not hit too many HRs, but will supply a decent AVG, Runs and occasional RBIs and SBs.
Reid Brignac- TB: Another player withgreat hitting skills. Playing was an issue for awhile, but that has seemed to not be an issue lately. Hot this week with 3HR’s, & RBIs and a .471 Avg. Both Walker and Brignac are better options than the currently higher rated starters in Orlando Hudson, Skip Schumaker and Christian Guzman.

Third Base

Chris Johnson- HOU: Not a whole lot of good things happening for the Astros, but that means giving playing time to rookies and Chris Johnson has been a nice surprise and has hit his couple of ML HRs this week. While also hitting almost .500, 6 Rs and 8 RBIs. Clearly a young player to stash away and see if he sticks.

Short Stop

Starlin Castro- CHI: Nothing flashy, but will supply Avg. and occasions SBs.

Outfield

Jose Tabata- PIT: It is a shame this guy is not owned in more leagues. He is the table setter for a young Bucs lineup. He has little to no power and hits around .270, but he provides a lot of speed for Rs and SBs. Although this week has hit .375 with 7 RBIs adding 9Rs and 2 SBs.
Luke Scott - BAL: When Scott is in the zone he can hot with the best, and lately he has been locked in batting .450 this week and a pair of HRs.
Matt Diaz- ATL: Has been on fire since returning from injury, this week .550, 3 dingers and 9 RBIs. He is a streaky hitter, play him while he is hot.

Catcher

Yorvit Torrealba- SD: He maintains a nice +.330 Avg usually and will provide sparingly in other categories.
Jason Kendall- KC: A scrappy veteran who can fill a void if your starting C is down. More importantly, should keep a healthy enough Avg. to not hurt you there. All other stats are bonus.

Now let’s switch to pitching:

Starters

C.J. Wilson- TEX: The switch to starter has been a success and while this guy is probably owned in nearly half or more leagues, it’s enough to mention. That and he was available in one of my leagues…well not anymore that is. He has been lights out ever since following Cliff Lee in the rotation. He is working on pitch count and few walks and it has led to 4 wins, 29Ks, and a near 2.10 and 1.10 ERA and WHIP respectively.
Vincente Padilla- LAD: This guy always seems to have strong 2nd halves. He is very likely available in your league and has provided a line of 3 Ws, 34 Ks, 1.30 ERA and .77 WHIP in his last 31 innings.
Jair Jurrjens- ATL: Great young arm that is living up lately to a great rookie campaign. Over the last month has delivered 2 Ws, 20Ks, 2.19ERA and 1.18 WHIP.
Vin Mazarro- OAK: Has put up numbers very similar to Jurrjens and worth a look at in deep leagues.

Closers

Alfedo Simon – BAL: Has provided stability to an very unstable situation at the start of the year. n a struggling team, but has 7 saves in the last month. However, keep an eye on Mike Gonzalez who could regain this job if his velocity returns.
Aaron Heilman/Juan Gutierrez - ARI: This is another complicated possible closer by committee. Neither is a great choice, although Gutierrez has been pretty decent lately. fact is the D’Backs do not win a lot of games. So only grab one of these guys if you are really desperate for saves.

Relievers

Sean Marshall- CHI: Marshall has been the Godzilla of relievers this years and will likely return a line at the end of the season that many starters will be jealous of. If his 2nd half is a good as his first his line would look something like 10-12 Ws, 120Ks, 1.80 ERA and1.00 WHIP. Pair him up with another quality reliever and you have a staff ace in the two.

Other mentionable relievers are Evan Meek, Luke Gregerson, Daniel Bardand Johnny Venters.

• Brett Wallace – TOR (1B) Heir to Overbay and oneday MLB batting champ.
• Kala Ka’aihue – KC (OF) Solid hitter who needs a chance to prove himself.
• Logan Morrison – FL (1B,OF) Gaby Sanchez forces this young heavy hitter to OF.
• J.P. Arencibia - TOR (C) Leads league in HRs and  qualifies at catcher…anything else?
• Dustin Ackley – SEA (2B) The answer to 2B for the Mariners finally?
• Jeremy Hellickson – TB (SP) Not as sharp as the start of the season but knocking on the door.
• Adam Moore – SEA (C) Another C prospect who has just hit everywhere.
• Domonic Brown – PHI (OF) Werth may leave via trade or free agency, Phils not worried with this kid around.

None of these players are complete unknowns and have been on the fantasy radar for some time, especially Wallace and Hellickson. Still, a lot of managers will not be prepared for these prospects until after they make their splash.

Coco crisp, Drew Stubbs, Clint Barmes, Jim Thome, Gaby Sanchez, Sean Rodriguez or Gordon Beckham.

No particular order there, do a quick view of your waiver wire and sort by needed stats over the past month and week if possible and see who stands out.